Tuesday, February 6, 2007

The Magic 100,000

 The growth in new Registrations is amazing.

Apparantely there was a piece on SL on CNN which inspired either first time or another time registrations. The concurrency rates however, in my anecdotal observations have not jumped so much yet. Seems like some recent grid flakiness has keep people off the grid over weekend.

So the scaling of SL issue is still big. But really aside from managing the Registration flow, which in general seems to lose about 85% of all people, the main event for 2007 seems to be when/if SL can hit 100,000 concurrent users.

My random analysis of 2007 based upon current headings and steam of 15% monthly growth rate in Registrations suggest that the magic 100,000 will hit in August/September time.  But will SL be able to get there? Or will it struggle at 50,000?

In general it seems like 2 things must happen 1) no more free accounts 2) segmentation of grid, ie 4 grids each at 25,000 should already work.  So if you jump between grid areas it would be a more involved teleporting somehow. You may have to pack a travel bag of your inventory!

I think paying a little more in general should provide better user experience for more interested people, but will that change the wierdness of it all too much!

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